Hong Futures the new soybean yield superimposed Liandou will load down-www.40sqw.com

Hong Futures: the new soybean yield Liandou will load a superposition of downlink,       soybean yield pattern has been set, 1       domestic soybean yield about 1 million 150 thousand tons by adjusting the planting structure and effect of corn temporary storage policy reform, the year 201617 is expected to rise Chinese soybean acreage to 7 million 156 thousand hectares, increase 566 thousand hectares over the previous year, an increase of 8.6%. Soybean yield per hectare will reach 1783 kg ha in 201617, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year. Soybean production will reach 12 million 760 thousand tons, 1 million 150 thousand tons over the previous year increased 2,       soybean yield record USDA9 month U.S. soybean supply and demand report, the U.S. soybean yield reached a record 50.6 bushels of acres, 83 million acres, according to the calculation, production reached a record 4 billion 199 million bushels. Record production limits the height of the U. s.. From the recent trend in the United States and Liandou disk ratio continued to rise, but also to suppress the demand of domestic soybean to soybean substitute, for soybean crush demand will be difficult to improve. Food processing demand will continue to dominate. Two,       national storage soybean throwing storage is expected to continue until October, since July this year, soybean storage, since the national storage soybean cumulative throw 10 times, the cumulative dumping reserves of 5 million 700 thousand tons, the cumulative turnover of 1 million 570 thousand tons, the cumulative turnover rate of only 27.51%. Low turnover rate reflects the market supply is relatively abundant beans, processors and traders offer enthusiasm is not high but at the same time, the State Reserve soybean auction market is expected to continue until October, according to the rhythm of the weekly turnover of 600 thousand tons and 27.51%, is expected to the end of October there will be 165 thousand tons *5=82.5 tons of beans into the reservoir to the market, will increase the supply of soybeans. Three,       new beans have been gradually listed in October every year for the soybean harvest season, and the current sunny weather in Heilongjiang is conducive to soybean harvest, is expected to speed up the harvest will be accelerated. At the end of the month will be a large area along the Huaihe River and the soybean market, the price is still facing downward pressure. On the one hand, due to the poor quality of soybean, the phenomenon of green grain is widespread, and the protein content is lower than in previous years; on the other hand, because of the centralized supply of soybean market in the South and North, the output of Anhui increased compared with the previous year, and the soybean farmers concentrated sales, the price downward pressure is greater. Four,       a summary of the 1617 annual yield of soybean Chinese and the United States is expected to strongly increase in the market; continue to throw storage of soybean, while the northern hemisphere soybean harvest season, listed on the new bean material to domestic soybean prices continue downward. Five,       operation with Liandou 1701, is expected to first target price 3560, second price target is 3330, the proposed short-term short strategy. Hong Kong Futures Sina statement. 弘业期货:新豆叠加丰产 连豆将负重下行   一、    大豆增产格局已定   1、    国产大豆增产约115万吨   受种植结构调整和玉米临储政策改革影响,预计2016 17年度中国大豆播种面积回升至7156千公顷,比上年度增加566千公顷,增幅8.6%。2016 17年度大豆单产将达到1783公斤 公顷,比上年度增加1.2%。大豆产量将达到1276万吨,比上年度增加115万吨   2、    美豆产量创历史纪录   USDA9月美豆供需报告显示,美豆单产达到创纪录的50.6蒲 英亩,按8300万英亩计算,则产量达到创纪录的41.99亿蒲。创纪录的产量限制了美豆的高度。   而从最近连豆与美豆盘面比值走势在持续走高,也压制了国产大豆对美豆的替代性需求,用于大豆压榨的需求将难有提高。仍将以食品加工需求为主。   二、    国储大豆抛储有望延续至10月   自今年7月大豆抛储以来,国储大豆累计抛储10次,累计抛储量为570万吨,累计成交量为157万吨,累计成交率仅为27.51%。低成交率反映的是市场豆供应相对较充裕,加工商及贸易商接盘积极性不高   而同时,市场预计国储大豆的拍卖将延续至10月份,按每周一次60万吨及27.51%的成交节奏,预计至10月份结束将有16.5万吨*5=82.5万吨国储豆流入到市场,将增加大豆供应。   三、    新豆已逐步上市   每年的10月份为大豆的收割季,而目前黑龙江天气晴朗利于大豆的收割,预计收割进度将有所加快。而沿淮大豆月末即将大面积上市,价格仍面临下行压力。一方面因为上市大豆质量欠佳,青粒现象普遍,而且蛋白含量低于往年;另一方面因为南北方大豆集中供应市场,安徽产量较上年增加,豆农集中销售,价格下行压力较大。   四、    综述   16 17年度中国与美国大豆产量增加预期强烈;国储持续向市场抛储大豆,而与此同时北半球进入大豆的收割季,新豆的集中上市料使国产大豆价格继续下行。   五、    操作建议   结合连豆1701,预计第1目标价位为3560,第2目标价位为3330,建议短期做空策略。   弘业期货 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: