In 2016 and 2008 there is an essential difference between the present motherboard blue chip index at-splitit

In 2016 and 2008 there is an essential difference between the current index of blue chip motherboard bull starting point sina finance Level2:A shares Sina speed Kanpan finance client: making the most of the investors in the ginger, Ren editor Yang Xiaokun A shares in January 2016 poor start, the index fell a record. Entering the February, the global market changes, people can not help worrying about the 2008 financial tsunami comeback. But if you analyze them carefully, you will find that there is an essential difference between the two. The first oil prices in the first half of 2008 as an example, the oil price has topped $130 a barrel in October, the financial tsunami on the eve of climax is approaching $150 a barrel of oil, and the oil was $120 a barrel until 2013. The United States subprime lit the fuse of the financial tsunami, but high oil prices to deepen the global crisis, this conclusion will not be excessive. According to the global 200 years especially since 1972 the oil price statistics, excluding oil price inflation after the peak of $20 a barrel, which is equivalent to $120 a barrel in 2013 the price of $2 a barrel, the valley is now, which is equivalent to $30 a barrel. Oil and gas resources as the consumer just need, fell to the valley value must be at the bottom, so now the price is at the bottom of the history; while oil prices pushed higher after being released to the wind, in the next 50 years will run out, the same rumors in 100 years ago, coal speculation is also was emerging, in fact, with the with the emergence of new alternative energy, oil and coal in the thousands of years of age will Everfount, so the cycle oil price of $20 a barrel rehabilitation peak only historical data is less than 5%. High oil prices is one of the important factors in the 2008 financial tsunami, now this factor does not exist, but prices are extremely beneficial to the manufacturing power of economic recovery to the trough period, historical experience reference in 1980s, low oil prices is most conducive to the manufacturing industry of national economic recovery. The same is the global market volatility, low oil prices bring potential favorable factors and high oil prices brought about by the economic pressure is essentially different. The exchange rate as an example, the 2008 financial tsunami triggered a price of US assets at the beginning of 2016, the global financial market volatility incentive is the exchange rate, but the Fed is still worried about asset price. The global economy is divided into three categories: the economic structure of the financial services industry, the typical country is now the United States and the former British, providing global financial liquidity and technical standards, monetary policy is the core of asset prices; manufacturing industry, is a typical country China, Japan, Germany and South Korea, monetary policy is the core of commodity sales the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the negative interest rate policy is based on this; resources industry, typical countries such as oil producers and Australia etc.. Now the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank negative interest rate and low interest rate policy, will give the U.S. economy input deflation potential, this is the opposite of 2008 we are familiar with the input type inflation, the probability of future the Fed continued to raise interest rates are reduced. Similarly, the probability of the dollar index unilaterally strengthening is also decreasing. The first half of this year, the RMB exchange rate will stabilize, with the transformation of recovery of the manufacturing industry, China

2016年与2008年有本质区别 目前主板蓝筹指数处牛市起点 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   ⊙姜韧 ○编辑 杨晓坤   2016年1月A股开局不佳,指数跌幅创历史纪录。步入2月,全球市场轮番异动,令人不禁担忧2008年金融海啸卷土重来。但若仔细分析,便会发现两者之间有着本质不同。   先以油价为例,2008年上半年油价就已高居130美元 桶,10月金融海啸高潮前夕油价更是逼近150美元 桶,而且直至2013年油价还是120美元 桶。美国次级债点燃了金融海啸导火索,但却是高油价全面深化了全球危机,这样的结论绝不为过。   根据全球200年特别是1972年之后油价数据统计,撇除通胀因素之后的油价峰值是20美元 桶,即相当于2013年120美元 桶的价格,谷值是2美元 桶,即相当于现在30美元 桶。油气资源作为消费刚需,跌到谷值就一定是底部,所以现在油价就是历史性底部;而油价被炒高后被人放出风来,在下一个50年会耗尽,同样的谣言在100年前的煤炭炒作中也曾不断出现,其实随着新替代能源的出现,石油煤炭在本千年时代还会源源不断,因此油价20美元 桶复权峰值出现的周期仅占历史统计数据的5%都不到。   高油价是2008年金融海啸的重要因素之一,如今这一因素并不存在,而且油价处于极其有利于制造业大国经济复苏的历史谷值周期,参考20世纪80年代的历史经验,低油价最有利于制造业国家的经济复苏。同样是全球市场波动,低油价带来的潜在利好因素与高油价带来的经济压力有着本质区别。   再以汇率为例,2008年金融海啸的导火索是美国的资产价格,2016年初全球金融市场波动的诱因是汇率,但美联储担忧的仍然是资产价格。目前全球各经济体大致区分为三类经济结构:金融服务业,典型国家是现在的美国和以前的英国,提供全球金融流动性和技术标准,货币政策核心是资产价格;制造业,典型国家是中国、日本、德国和韩国,货币政策核心是商品销售,日本央行、欧洲央行负利率政策即源于此;资源业,典型国家如产油国及澳大利亚等。   现在日本央行、欧洲央行的负利率和低利率政策,会给美国经济带来潜在的输入型通缩,这恰是2008年我们熟悉的输入型通胀的反义词,未来美联储持续加息的概率正在降低。同理,美元指数单边走强的概率也在降低。今年上半年人民币汇率会稳定下来,随着制造业的转型复苏,中国的资产价格会逐步显出吸引力。   资产价格核心是股市和楼市,2016年初A股主板市场估值和市值称重都处于历史低点,这与2008年初A股估值处于历史峰值有着本质区别,现在就是巴菲特所谓“克服住恐惧”的时刻,2016年A股主板蓝筹指数是处于牛市的起点而不是2008年牛市的末期。至于楼市,国际型大都市的房价将是与国际同类城市房价缓慢接轨的过程,因为中国10%的购买力人口就超过了日本整个国家的人口。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: