Market regulation can not pursue digital games — Chongqing window — people’s network-g-area meru

The regulation of the property market can not pursue digital games. The statistics of the average house prices such as Chongqing windows and people’s network are not professional enough, nor are they real enough, but more like a digital game. Only by relying on old regulation and even playing digital games will not only cause the illusion of the market, but also the space for the reform of the system. According to media reports, according to the data provided by Suzhou housing and Construction Bureau, Suzhou housing price has dropped from 22 thousand yuan in October 2nd to around 13 thousand yuan in 6 days. Suzhou City Price Bureau 8 also said that after nearly half a month of commercial housing prices, special inspection, housing construction and other departments jointly identified 22 alleged cover plate reluctant sellers, the price tag is not the price tag, the element is not complete, the label content is not updated in a timely manner the issue of illegal housing prices. In just 4 days, the average price of the property market dropped by more than 40%. The lag period from the policy to the market reaction has not appeared at all, which seems to indicate the accuracy and effectiveness of the housing market regulation and special rectification actions. But in fact, it is not statistically significant to count the trend of house prices by 4 days of market data. For example, if the opening sale of real estate in October 2nd is concentrated in the hot area, and the 6 day opening sale is concentrated in the cold area, then we can draw the conclusion that the average house price is decreasing rapidly. Conversely, if the sale of the estate is the cold door area, it will get the opposite conclusion. In addition, different marketing means and strength are different, it is also enough to affect the average price of the property market in such a short time. In fact, the Suzhou housing prices was 4 days in reverse, it is because of the introduction of the new property "frozen" policy under the influence of the volume turned away from the urban district of Wujiang city results from five. While the city five volume although fell sharply, but the price has not dropped. That is to say, a sudden decline in prices in Suzhou, is a remote area prices diluted City five area prices results. Such an average house price statistics is certainly not professional, nor is it true, but more like a digital game. But it can not be denied that digital games can also play a strong role in reversing market expectations. In the 4 days, the average house price dropped by more than 40%, enough to cool the market, and let the buyers who had high spirits stop to wait and see, so that the real estate regulation and the supporting actions should be presented in the shortest time. But the problem is, can such a effect be lasting? To change the market expectations with a digital game is not only suspicious, but also likely to have the opposite effect. On the one hand, the digital game itself, is reflected in the property market regulation execution is not serious, not serious; on the other hand, the market has reason to believe that, since the statistical data shows that the housing prices fell by more than 40% in 4 days, so that the property market regulation task has been completed, the property market regulation has just started probably will only run in the short term in the future, will relax. This judgment will only increase rather than reduce the resistance to regulation. The dramatic decline in Suzhou’s price is a warning to other cities. During the national day, more than 20 cities across the country issued the "restricted" property control policy, covering one or two or three tier cities. Meanwhile, many cities began to increase land supply, which aims to cool the housing market and let housing prices return to normal range. The past history of housing regulation shows that the short-term effect of "restriction" is obvious, but once the situation has changed, the rebound of property prices is more than expected. History has proved that the regulation of the property market must be upgraded to the stage of policy stability, transparency and institutional reform, so it is possible to jump out of the vicious circle that sometimes encourages restrictions. This means that the policy formulation and effectiveness evaluation of the housing market cannot be played empty. Only in this way, can we get the corresponding regulation policies and reform measures on the basis of collecting real data. Relying solely on old regulation routines or even playing digital games will not only cause market illusions, but also block the space for institutional reform, and increase the divergence between market and policy. Such a market regulation, even if it is really effective, is not advisable. Xu Lifan, a special commentator of our newspaper

楼市调控不能追求数字游戏–重庆视窗–人民网  这样的平均房价统计当然不够专业,也不够真实,而更像是一个数字游戏。仅仅依靠老的调控套路,甚至玩数字游戏,不仅会造成市场错觉,还可能封杀制度改革的空间。   媒体报道,根据苏州市住建局提供的数据,苏州房价已由10月2日的2.2万元 平方米左右跌落至6日的1.3万元 平方米左右。苏州市物价局8日也表示,经过近半个月的商品房专项检查,物价、住建等部门联合查出22家涉嫌存在捂盘惜售、未明码标价、明码标价要素不全、标示内容更新不及时等违法违规问题的房企。   短短4天内,楼市均价就下降了40%以上,从政策出台到市场反应之间的滞后期完全没有出现,这似乎表明楼市调控和专项整治行动的精准性和成效。但实际上,以间隔4天的楼市数据统计房价趋势,一点也不具有统计意义。比如,如果10月2日开盘销售的楼盘集中于热门区域,而6日开盘销售的楼盘集中于冷门区域,那么自然可以得出平均房价迅猛下降的结论。反之,如果先销售的是冷门区域的楼盘,则会得到相反的结论。此外,不同楼盘的营销手段、力度不同,也足以对如此短时间内的楼市均价统计产生影响。事实上,苏州房价之所以在4天里出现逆转,就是因为在新出台的楼市“急冻”政策影响下,成交量从城五区转向了远离市区的吴江区的结果。而城五区的成交量尽管急剧下跌,但房价目前并未下降。也就是说,苏州房价的突然下跌,是偏远地区楼价稀释了城五区楼价的结果。   这样的平均房价统计当然不够专业,也不够真实,而更像是一个数字游戏。但不能否认,数字游戏也有可能起到强力逆转市场预期的作用。4天里平均房价就降了40%以上,足以给市场降温,让此前情绪高涨的购房者驻足观望,让楼市调控及与之配套的整治行动成效在最短时间内完全呈现出来。但问题是,这样的效应能持久吗?   拿数字游戏改变市场预期,不仅效应可疑,而且很可能产生相反作用。一方面,数字游戏本身,反映的就是楼市调控执行过程的不严肃,不严谨;另一方面,市场有理由认为,既然统计数据显示楼价4天就下降了40%以上,那么可以认定楼市调控任务已经完成,刚刚启动的楼市调控很可能只会在短期内运行,必然在今后松绑。这种判断,只会增加而非减少调控的阻力。   苏州楼价戏剧性下降这一幕,对其他城市具有警示意义。国庆期间,全国20多个城市密集出台了“限”字当头的楼市调控政策,涵盖一、二、三线城市,与此同时,不少城市开始增加土地供应,目的都是给楼市降温,让房价回到正常区间。过去的楼市调控史表明,“限”字当头的调控政策,短期效应都比较显着,但一旦形势有变,楼价反弹力度都超乎预期。历史已经证明,楼市调控必须升级到政策稳定透明、制度改革同步进行的台阶上来,才有可能跳出时而鼓励时而限制的怪圈。这也就意味着,对于楼市调控的政策表述和效果评估,都不能玩虚的,只有这样,才有可能在采集真实数据的基础上,提出相应的调控政策和改革措施。仅仅依靠老的调控套路,甚至玩数字游戏,不仅会造成市场错觉,还可能封杀制度改革的空间,让市场与政策的背离度增大。这样的楼市调控,即使真的有效,也不可取。   本报特约评论员徐立凡相关的主题文章: