National Securities market mentality tends to be cautious, the probability of continued volatility i-mcncc

National securities market: mind again more cautious outlook continued to the probability of large shocks Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide your entries as you earn take can make you my original title: short-term market rebound in the limited space of the national day after the market continued to rebound before the trend, the Shanghai index even closed for 4 consecutive days red, but with the rebound into the previous resistance area, the cautious attitude of the market once again become strong. The author believes that this also shows that this round of rebound space is very small, the possibility of concussion or even a slight decline in the future is larger. A series of bad pre IPO, such as pressure, booming housing market fierce suction gold, has triggered the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 points again, but before a few trading days the market has resisted pressure drop, causes the holiday market continued to rebound as follows. First, recent economic data show better economic data for the three quarter to be announced in October. Such as 9 months Mining Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 50.4 expected, the former value of 50.4, the manufacturing boom continued expansion trend, and the main index are also good: the new orders index was 50.9, although the previous month fell 0.4 percentage points, but still higher than the critical point, indicating that manufacturing market demand continued expansion of new situation; export orders in 50.1, up 0.4 percentage points higher than last month; to benefit from government investment demand as the core enterprise and improve product prices, production will increase, production index in September 52.8, last month increased by 0.2 percentage points. This means that in the three quarter compared to the two quarter GDP growth rate is likely to rise, while taking into account the government are still using the active fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth, such as a positive response to all government requirements to accelerate the project financing of PPP, the number of listed on the list of the third batch of 2016 more than 500 projects, a total investment of more than 1 trillion yuan, more than two years ago, the sum of the fourth quarter of this year, economic growth will continue to stabilize the possibility is still large, it also ensures that the first half of this year the enterprise profit growth is guaranteed. Second, to the end of September this year, the National Day golden week, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other 21 city launched a real estate deal, keep step with regulation in determination, and the real estate market has entered a new round of adjustment cycle. Can be expected, a large number of ready to enter the housing market funds have to reconsider the direction of asset allocation, in time, there will be a part of the funds gradually back to the stock market, and the stock market stock funds and funds will not be in the periphery of wait-and-see, the housing market will inevitably take cover in the stock market movements, so as to stimulate the market rose. Third, the State Council recently issued the "active and reliable reduction of corporate leverage rate of opinion" is also conducive to market related topics rising. Such as the "opinions" pointed out: second to promote mergers and acquisitions in key industries, increase the joint reorganization concentration is not high, the homogenization of Competition outstanding trade or industry to industry, strengthen the integration of resources, the development of economies of scale, the implementation of downsizing to improve efficiency, improve the comprehensive competitiveness, which means that the asset restructuring of the capital market will also increase the intensity, is expected to set off the market restructuring theme; the "opinions" also pointed to the orderly conduct of the market on the bank

民族证券:市场心态再趋谨慎 后市持续震荡概率大 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 你参赛你赚你拿 总能让你过把瘾   原标题:市场短期反弹空间有限   国庆节后的市场延续了节前反弹的走势,上证指数甚至出现了连续4日收红,但是随着反弹进入前期阻力区,市场的谨慎心态也再次变得浓厚。笔者认为,这也表明此轮反弹的空间很小,后市震荡甚至小幅下跌的可能性较大。   前期的系列利空,如新股发行压力加大,红火房市猛烈吸金等,曾促发上证指数再次跌破3000点,但是节前几个交易日却抵制了市场下跌压力,节后市场继续反弹的原因包括以下方面。   第一,近期的经济数据显示10月即将公布的三季度经济数据较好。如9月中采制造业PMI为50.4,预期50.4,前值50.4,制造业景气延续扩张态势,而主要分项指标也都表现良好:新订单指数为50.9,虽比上月回落0.4个百分点,但仍高于临界点,表明制造业市场需求延续扩张态势;新出口订单50.1,比上月加快0.4个百分点;受益于以政府投资为核心的需求改善以及企业产品价格回升,企业生产意愿加大,9月生产指数52.8,较上月提升0.2个百分点。这都意味着三季度GDP增速很可能相对于二季度回升,而考虑到政府仍在采用积极财政政策刺激经济增长,如各地积极响应政府要求加快推进PPP项目融资,2016年第三批名单上列出的全国项目数量超过500个,投资总额超过了1万亿元,超过了前两年总和,今年四季度经济增速继续企稳可能性仍较大,这也保证了今年下半年企业利润持续增长有保证。   第二,今年9月底至国庆黄金周期间,北京、深圳、杭州、南京等21个城市相继推出地产新政,步调一致,调控决心坚定,房地产市场进入了新的一轮调控周期。可以预计,一大批准备进入房市的资金不得不重新考虑资产配置的方向,假以时日,定会有部分资金逐步回流股市,而股市的存量资金和外围观望资金,不会再有进房市的意愿,必然抓紧在股市的补仓动作,从而刺激市场上涨。   第三,国务院近期正式发布的《关于积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率的意见》也有利于市场相关主题上涨。如《意见》第二条指出:推动重点行业兼并重组,加大对产业集中度不高、同质化竞争突出行业或产业的联合重组,加强资源整合,发展规模经济,实施减员增效,提高综合竞争力,这意味着资本市场资产重组力度也将加大,有望掀起市场炒作重组题材;《意见》还指出要有序开展市场化银行债权转股权(债转股),通过债转股,将为负债率高企的企业提供一条化解债务风险、降低杠杆率的一条通道,特别是过剩行业的国有龙头企业负债高,风险大,它们将是最大的受益者,考虑到它们的市值较大,其基本面的改善也有利于提振市场信心。   尽管这些利多消息有利于刺激市场回升,但考虑到以下原因,市场持续回升,上证指数继续挑战3100年线的压力却较大。   第一,由于以美国为代表的发达经济体经济增速企稳,全球货币政策正趋于中性,如最新数据显示,美国8月季调后CPI环比增0.2%,预期0.1%,前值持平;8月核心CPI同比增2.3%,创2009年以来新高,连续第10个月高于美联储略低于2%的通胀目标,预期增2.2%,前值增2.2%。这表明通胀状况维持稳健,美联储年内加息几率增加,利率期货市场反映美联储12月加息的机率为约70%。   美国加息临近以及全球货币政策正趋于中性也会制约我国货币政策宽松空间。如央行行长周小川日前表示,中国信贷增长较快,反映了中国在全球经济增长乏力背景下应对风险、促进增长所做的努力,随着全球经济复苏逐步正常化,中国会对信贷增长有所控制。而事实上,央行近期货币政策也在逐渐趋于稳健,如在央行节前大量进行逆回购操作之后,本周迎来到期高峰,央行连续三天大额净回笼,三日净回笼3550亿元。可以预计四季度信贷增长也会放缓,从而不利于资金进入股市。   第二,严厉房地产调控对于经济及企业盈利的负面影响将会逐渐体现。这很可能导致四季度这些地区房地产销售额增速下降,明年若不出台宽松货币政策刺激经济,则2017年这些地区销量增速将全面转负,从历史经验看,地产投资滞后于地产销售两个季度,未来地产投资增速的下滑或出现在2017年二、三季度,考虑到房地产对于国内经济的重大影响,明年经济增速继续下行压力加大,各类资产价格也将承压。   因此,市场当前不具备持续反弹条件,市场今后维持弱势震荡格局的概率较大。   民族证券 陈伟 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: