Public and private equity fund deflationary pressures need to be wary of the stock market is expecte-homefront

Public and private equity fund: deflationary pressures need to be wary of the stock market is expected to shock up the January CPI rose 1.8%, PPI fell 5.3% – reporter Zhao Xueyi in February 18th, the National Bureau of statistics released data show that in January the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8%, hit 5 month highs; industrial producer price index (PPI 5.3%) year-on-year decline, the decline narrowed further. Public and private funds to this group of data is also the first time for the comments, generally said that compared to the pressure of inflation, deflation pressure is more alarming; the stock market is expected to stabilize, the long-term shocks constant upward direction. Star stone investment general manager, vice chairman of the investment committee Yang Ling believes that the analysis of CPI data, CPI rose more, rose to expand, there are three main reasons: one is the contribution of food, affected by the Spring Festival approaching the market demand and weather factors, January food items rose 4.1%, the highest since June 2014 pork, which rose 18.8% last month to expand 4.8%, fresh vegetables rose 14.7% last month to expand 2.9%; two is the winter, during the Spring Festival travel number increases, traffic and tourism prices rose significantly; the three is near the Spring Festival residents increased demand for services, service prices rose higher, housekeeping services, hairdressing, clothing washing maintenance beauty, such as prices rose 7.4%, 5.5%, 4% and 3.1%. The Great Wall Jingshun fund investment department said, PPI has a direct relationship with the recent slowing decline in commodity prices stabilized stabilized, although the price of crude oil in January out of low, but because of the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the influence of PPI is not significant, in addition, iron ore, rubber, non-ferrous metal prices in January were flat or slightly again, taking into account the January devaluation effect, input deflation pressure decreases. "The short-term need to focus on domestic demand can significantly rebound, although the recent credit data significantly improved, but from the micro level and did not get too much evidence if the domestic economy has stabilized, steady growth policies continue to force the fundamentals for substantial rise, the price of production and the effect of the lower support base, will undoubtedly help PPI continued to rise, we need to continue to focus on." "CPI picked up but does not change the direction of monetary policy, both supply and demand together and force the economy is expected to stabilize the bottom: Although CPI rebounded, but mainly due to seasonal factors and the impact of the low base, we do not expect a constraint on monetary policy. From the credit data in January, the scale of credit innovation of new RMB loans 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan in January, significantly higher than the previous value of 597 billion 800 million yuan; the scale of social financing in January 3 trillion and 420 billion yuan, an increase of up to 67.08%, government stability intentions clear, financial support for the real economy increase. We expect that this year, under the role of supply side reform and demand side stable growth, the economy is expected to hit the bottom and stabilize." Yang Ling further said, "for the stock market, after a substantial depth adjustment, the stock of long-term investment theory."

公私募基金:通缩压力需警惕 股市有望震荡向上   1月份CPI同比涨1.8%,PPI同比下降5.3%   ■本报记者 赵学毅   2月18日,国家统计局发布的数据显示,1月份全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨1.8%,创下5个月新高;工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降5.3%,跌幅进一步收窄。公私募基金对这组数据也第一时间进行了点评,普遍表示,相比通胀压力,目前通缩压力更值得警惕;股市有望企稳,长期震荡向上的方向不变。   星石投资总经理、投资决策委员会副主席杨玲对CPI数据分析认为,CPI环比上涨较多,同比涨幅扩大,主要原因有三:一是食品项贡献大,受临近春节市场需求旺盛和天气因素的影响,1月份食品项同比上涨4.1%,为2014年6月份以来的最高,其中猪肉同比上涨18.8%,较上月扩大4.8%,鲜菜同比上涨14.7%较上月扩大2.9%;二是寒假、春运期间出行人数增加,交通和旅游价格上涨明显;三是临近春节居民对服务需求增加,部分服务价格同比涨幅较高,家政服务、美发、衣着洗涤保养、美容等价格同比分别上涨7.4%、5.5%、4%和3.1%。   景顺长城基金投资部对此表示,PPI跌幅放缓与近期大宗商品价格的止跌企稳有直接关系,虽然原油价格在1月份探出新低,但由于国内成品油价格调整机制原因,对PPI影响并不显著,此外,铁矿石、橡胶、有色金属价格在1月份基本持平或小幅回升,同时考虑到1月份人民币贬值影响,输入型通缩压力减小。“短期需要关注国内需求能否出现显著反弹,虽然近期信贷数据大幅好转,但从微观层面并没有得到太多经济企稳的证据,如果国内稳增长政策继续发力,基本面出现实质性回升,对于生产资料价格的支撑以及较低的基数作用,无疑将有利于PPI继续回升,我们需要持续关注。”   “CPI回升但不改货币政策方向,供需两端齐发力下经济有望触底企稳:尽管CPI有所回升,但主要是受季节因素和低基数的影响,我们预计不会对货币政策构成制约。从1月份的信贷数据来看,信贷规模创新高1月新增人民币贷款2.51万亿元,大幅高于前值5978亿元;1月份社会融资规模3.42万亿元,同比增长高达67.08%,政府维稳的意图明显,对实体经济的金融支持力度加大。我们预计今年在供给侧改革和需求侧稳增长的作用下,经济有望触底企稳。”杨玲进一步表示,“对于股票市场,经历过大幅的深度调整之后,股票的长期投资价值已经凸显;同时影响市场的积极因素不断累积:人民币汇率已经趋于稳定、金融货币数据超预期、PPI降幅收窄、临近3月份“两会”积极的政策也会不断释放,因此市场情绪有望逐步恢复,市场有望企稳,长期震荡向上的方向不变。” 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: